2026 Market Outlook: The S&P 500 Illusion And The Small-Cap Pivot

Market Overview - The market is entering 2026 with a sense of confidence rather than fear, with indexes showing an upward trend and major technology companies appearing robust [1] - There are currently no discussions regarding a potential market crash, indicating a stable market sentiment [1] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy focuses on identifying high-upside opportunities in overlooked sectors, particularly small-cap stocks, energy, commodities, and special situations [1] - The approach is based on the CAN SLIM framework, enhanced by looking for fundamental momentum indicators such as EPS, ROE, and revenue growth [1] - Price-volume confirmation and macroeconomic filters are also integral to the investment strategy [1] Analytical Tools - Econometric tools like GARCH and Granger causality are utilized to assess risk, volatility, and the influence of macro data on market cycles [1] - The analysis does not rely on a single signal but aims to build conviction through a combination of technical, fundamental, and catalyst-driven insights [1] Personal Background - The individual has been managing personal capital since 2020 and has been advising under MiFID II after obtaining a relevant license [1] - Educational qualifications include a bachelor's degree in Business Administration and Economics, with ongoing studies for a master's in Finance [1] - The insights provided are based on actual market positioning or a watchlist, focusing on areas where market perceptions diverge from numerical data [1]