涨6%→跌6%，白银大跳水

Group 1 - Silver experienced a significant drop, falling over 6% after reaching a historical high earlier in the day, with a current decline of 5.67% [1] - COMEX silver fell approximately 4%, while other precious metals like gold and palladium also saw declines of nearly 2% and 12% respectively [2] - The global silver market is projected to have a supply-demand gap exceeding 100 million ounces by 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of supply shortages [3] Group 2 - The largest silver ETF, SLV, reported a holding of 16,400 tons as of December 26, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2% [3] - LBMA silver inventory has dropped to a historical low of about 27,000 tons, with most being linked to ETFs and not freely tradable, indicating tight liquidity [3] - UBS warned that the rapid increase in precious metal prices is largely due to insufficient market liquidity, suggesting a potential for a swift decline [3] Group 3 - Current silver trends are outperforming gold, with significant volatility and a "frenzy phase" in the market, leading to caution for ordinary investors [4] - The rapid price increases in silver, platinum, and palladium have created overheating market sentiments, with the gold-silver ratio dropping below historical averages, indicating accumulating risks [4] - The financial and industrial attributes of silver, platinum, and palladium mean that irrational price surges could suppress actual demand [4] Group 4 - Analysts noted that speculative levels in nickel and palladium have exceeded 65%, indicating extreme market sensitivity to changes [5] - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and monetary policy shifts are providing support for precious metals, but the rapid price increases are diverging from actual consumption [4]