玻璃期货持续低位震荡：多空胶着，静待破局

Core Viewpoint - The glass futures market is currently in a weak balance state, characterized by limited price fluctuations and a lack of clear direction due to various pressures and supports [1][19]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Glass futures prices have been experiencing low-level fluctuations, indicating a weak balance with pressure from above and support from below [1][19]. - The market is facing "threefold pressure" from weak terminal real estate demand, high social inventory, and rigid production supply despite widespread losses among companies [3][21]. Group 2: Demand Side - The demand for glass is closely linked to the real estate completion cycle, which is currently underperforming, leading to a decline in core metrics such as new starts, construction, and completion areas [4][22]. - Seasonal demand is further weakened as colder temperatures slow construction activities, resulting in a decrease in orders from downstream processing enterprises [4][22]. Group 3: Inventory Side - Inventory levels are a direct indicator of supply-demand balance; as of December 25, the total inventory of float glass production enterprises reached 58.623 million heavy boxes, showing a year-on-year increase of nearly 30% [5][23]. - The previous trend of inventory reduction has stalled, indicating that real terminal consumption has not initiated a significant inventory drawdown [5][23]. Group 4: Supply Side - The supply side remains relatively rigid, with daily melting volume stable at approximately 154,500 tons and a capacity utilization rate of 73.89% as of December 25 [9][27]. - Cost support is provided by widespread losses among glass producers, with production margins for various fuels showing negative values, which helps to underpin prices [9][27]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue its low-level oscillation due to high inventory suppressing upward price movement, while deep losses and cold repair expectations provide a bottom support [10][28]. - Key future observation points include the potential for effective inventory reduction before the Spring Festival, the realization of cold repair expectations, and the impact of macro policies on the demand side [11][29][31].