If markets can get through January bumps, it looks like positive 2026: Wharton's Siegel

Economic Outlook - The US economy is projected to continue its strong performance, with GDP estimates suggesting growth rates of around 3% for the fourth quarter and 4% for the third quarter, indicating a robust economic backdrop [2][3] - Predictions for 2025 suggest faster growth compared to the last year of the Biden administration, despite previous challenges such as tariffs [3] Stock Market Projections - The S&P 500 may reach 7,000 by the end of the year, with expectations of a good year ahead, particularly for the tech sector and the "Magnificent Seven" stocks [3][4] - For the upcoming year, the S&P is expected to see growth in the range of 5% to 10%, while non-Magnificent Seven stocks could see growth between 10% to 15% [3][4] Market Challenges - Potential challenges include a government shutdown, Supreme Court decisions on tariffs, and the announcement of the next Federal Reserve chairman, all of which could impact market stability [5][6] - Successful navigation of these challenges is deemed crucial for maintaining a positive market outlook [6] Earnings and Valuation - Earnings per share growth is anticipated to contribute to stock market performance, with estimates suggesting an 8% to 10% increase [8] - Current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are high, but not considered a bubble, as companies are still growing at significant rates [9][10]