ETF日报：2026年养殖业有望迎来利润与估值的同时修复 关注养殖ETF

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.04% to 3965.28 points, marking a nine-day winning streak, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.49% to 13537.10 points. The total trading volume remained high at 2.15 trillion yuan, with more declines than gains in the overall market. As the year-end approaches, market hotspots are becoming more dispersed, with the oil and military sectors performing relatively well. After a brief adjustment in the fourth quarter, the market has resumed its upward trend, and the positive factors driving this rally are expected to remain unchanged, indicating a potential slow bull market next year [1][10]. Metal Market Dynamics - The metal market has shown significant volatility, with silver futures experiencing over a 10% increase during the day but closing lower. Copper futures broke the 100,000 yuan mark but also saw a narrowing of gains by the end of the day. Platinum and palladium contracts hit their daily limit down. The fluctuations in commodity prices have led to a decline in the non-ferrous metal sector in the stock market [3][12]. - Silver has been in a structural supply deficit for five years, driven by industrial demand from photovoltaic silver paste and AI electronics, with a cumulative increase of over 150% this year. The global supply of silver is primarily a byproduct of copper, lead, and zinc mining, and the expected increase in silver supply by 2026 is minimal, unable to fill the significant demand gap. The demand from the photovoltaic industry is stable despite the push for "de-silverization," while the rapidly expanding demand from AI data centers and automotive electronics will further support silver prices. A physical deficit of over 100 million ounces of silver is anticipated by 2026 [3][12]. - In contrast, copper is transitioning from an expected shortage to a real shortage, with projections indicating a deep deficit of 500,000 to 1 million tons in the global copper market by 2026. The decline in existing mine grades and lagging capital expenditures are hindering copper supply growth, while the explosive demand from AI and power grids is creating a rigid demand for copper, making price increases more likely in the long term [3][12]. Investment Strategies - Given the significant prior gains in metals like silver and copper, profit-taking has led to increased short-term volatility. Companies with high-quality mining resources are expected to benefit from both volume and price increases, providing a good safety margin and typically higher stock price elasticity than the metals themselves. Investors are advised to pay attention to mining ETFs (561330) and consider opportunities for low-cost acquisitions [4][13]. - The livestock sector saw a mild increase today, with pig supply expected to contract significantly due to strong policy and market-driven reductions, potentially leading to a rising price trend. The chicken sector is also expected to see price stabilization as seasonal demand increases, while the egg-laying industry faces upstream supply constraints that will gradually affect prices. Overall, the livestock industry is anticipated to recover in profits and valuations by 2026, making livestock ETFs (159865) worth monitoring [4][14]. Currency and Economic Outlook - The offshore RMB has strengthened against the USD, reaching the 7.0 mark, the highest in 15 months. It is expected that the RMB will maintain a strong trend in the short term, with a moderate appreciation anticipated in 2026, which could enhance the attractiveness of Chinese assets to global capital [4][14]. - In 2026, China is expected to continue its loose monetary and proactive fiscal policies, leading to a further recovery in total demand. Globally, fiscal expansions in the US, Europe, and Japan are also expected to improve demand. The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a loose stance, benefiting the A-share market during the economic recovery phase [5][15]. Index Performance - The A500 index emphasizes industry balance and sector leaders, providing a more diversified and growth-exposed style that can offer a better beta base during the industrial upgrade cycle. Since its base period, the A500 has shown an annualized total return of 9.11% with a volatility of 21.41%, outperforming the CSI 300 in total returns, particularly in growth phases. The A500 index, covering leading companies across various sectors, offers investors a balanced choice between defensive and growth potential during market fluctuations [6][15].