汇丰环球投资研究：提振内需将成2026年中国主要政策重点

Group 1: Economic Outlook - HSBC forecasts global economic growth to remain stable in 2026, with a slowdown in trade export growth, while strong investment in artificial intelligence will support investment and trade growth in the next two years [1] - In Asia, export growth is expected to slow but will still outperform the global average [1] - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates further in 2026, maintaining the current target range [1] Group 2: China's Economic Performance - HSBC's Chief Economist for Greater China, Liu Jing, anticipates that China will achieve a 5% economic growth target for 2025, supported by a series of easing policies and resilient exports [1] - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," focusing on structural transformation and balanced trade, with domestic demand becoming the main driver of growth [1] - Expanding domestic demand will be a key policy focus in 2026, crucial for achieving high-quality economic development [1] Group 3: Investment Trends - Short-term "trade-in" policies are expected to continue, but long-term growth will hinge on service consumption [2] - Fixed asset investment is projected to recover, particularly in infrastructure, with a strong rebound anticipated in early 2026 [2] - The introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools is expected to alleviate funding issues for local governments, supporting over 2,300 projects with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan [2] Group 4: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The central economic work conference suggests maintaining a necessary fiscal deficit, with a target deficit rate of around 4% for 2026 [3] - Local government special bonds and special treasury bonds are expected to be issued at levels similar to 2025 to support consumption and major project investments [3] - HSBC anticipates a potential 20 basis point interest rate cut and a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut in 2026 [3] Group 5: Supply Chain and Trade - Amid rising global trade protectionism and supply chain security concerns, external demand uncertainties are expected to persist [4] - China aims to expand high-level openness and international cooperation to address these challenges [4] - The innovation-driven growth model in China is accelerating, with significant advancements in AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, enhancing China's attractiveness for foreign investment [4]