Seagate vs. Western Digital: Which Storage Stock is the Better Buy Now?

Core Insights - The global data storage market is expected to grow significantly, driven by AI, cloud computing, and cybersecurity, with Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) and Western Digital Corporation (WDC) as key players in the HDD and broader storage solutions market [1][3]. Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) - Seagate focuses on high-capacity HDDs for cloud data centers, experiencing a 34% year-over-year increase in data center revenue to $2.1 billion, which now constitutes about 80% of total sales [2][6]. - The company anticipates AI-driven data growth to enhance operational momentum and profitability, with long-term contracts providing revenue visibility [5][8]. - Seagate's product roadmap includes advancements in HAMR technology, with over 1 million Mozaic HAMR drives shipped, and a target of up to 10TB per disk, offering a competitive edge in cost efficiency [7][6]. - For fiscal 2026, Seagate forecasts revenue of approximately $2.7 billion, reflecting a 16% year-over-year growth, with non-GAAP operating margins near 30% [8]. - Seagate's financial strategy includes returning at least 75% of free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, with $153 million in dividends and $29 million in share repurchases reported in the fiscal first quarter [8][10]. Western Digital Corporation (WDC) - Western Digital benefits from AI-led demand, with a 23% year-over-year increase in shipments to 204 exabytes, supported by multi-year customer agreements [11][12]. - The separation of its HDD and Flash businesses is expected to unlock shareholder value, allowing for independent valuation and focused growth in the HDD market [12]. - WDC's disciplined capital allocation resulted in $672 million in operating cash flow in the fiscal first quarter, enabling $592 million in buybacks and dividends [13]. - The company is on track with HAMR development, with initial hyperscaler qualification expected in the first half of 2026, supporting future revenue growth [13]. - WDC's shares trade at a lower forward P/E ratio of 19.95 compared to Seagate's 23.12, making it more attractive from a valuation perspective [19]. Market Outlook - The global data storage market is projected to grow from $250.8 billion in 2025 to $483.9 billion by 2030, with the HDD segment expected to reach $111.2 billion by 2035 [3]. - Both companies are positioned to benefit from AI-driven data growth, but with differing risk profiles; Seagate offers higher near-term upside while Western Digital presents a more balanced and resilient investment option [24][25].