年终盘点之汇市：美元“单极”退潮，多极货币秩序浮现

Group 1 - The US dollar index has been on a downward trend since the beginning of the year, reflecting changes in global investor attitudes towards dollar assets and the impact of US monetary policy [1][5][7] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports that the dollar's share in global reserves has declined, dropping from 57.79% to 56.32% by the second quarter of 2025, marking a 30-year low [1][2] - The European Central Bank (ECB) and other global central banks are shifting towards independent monetary policies, leading to a diversified international monetary system [2][35] Group 2 - The euro has rebounded strongly, increasing by 13.5% over the year, driven by the weakening dollar and capital inflows [12][13] - The British pound has shown a "low open, high rise" trend, reaching a peak of 1.3743 against the dollar in July, supported by a stable UK economy and hawkish Bank of England policies [16][17] - The Japanese yen has experienced significant volatility, with a slight increase of 0.5% year-to-date, but facing depreciation pressures due to domestic political changes and fiscal risks [20][22][24] Group 3 - Resource currencies like the Australian dollar and Brazilian real have benefited from the weaker dollar, as it makes commodities cheaper for other currencies, boosting demand and export revenues [29][30] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index has risen over 6%, marking its best annual performance since 2017, with the Brazilian real gaining over 10% [31] - The weakening dollar has provided a significant boost to emerging market equities, while US stocks have remained strong, driven by AI themes despite concerns over US policies [33][34] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve has implemented three rate cuts in 2025, totaling 75 basis points, as it seeks to balance inflation control with employment stability [35][36] - The Bank of Japan has raised rates twice in 2025, marking a cautious approach amidst ongoing economic challenges, while the ECB has paused its rate cuts after a series of reductions earlier in the year [38][42] - The divergence in monetary policy paths among major central banks is expected to continue, with the Fed likely to cut rates once more in 2026, while the ECB may consider rate hikes depending on economic conditions [45][49]