When will mortgage rates go down? Rates have hardly budged in the past 2 months.

Core Insights - Mortgage rates have remained stable since late October, with slight annual decreases expected in 2026, but this does not indicate a poor time to buy or refinance [1][4] Mortgage Rate Trends - The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate as of December 24 is 6.18%, down 3 basis points from the previous week and 67 basis points lower than a year ago when it was 6.85% [2] - The 15-year fixed mortgage rate has increased by 3 basis points to 5.50%, which is still 50 basis points lower than the same time last year [3] - Overall, mortgage rates are decreasing, but a drop to 6% in the near future seems unlikely [4] Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve has cut the fed funds rate three times in 2025, which typically influences mortgage rates, although they do not directly correlate [5][6] - Anticipation of fed funds rate cuts often leads to a temporary decrease in mortgage rates, but significant drops may not follow after the cuts [8] Housing Market Dynamics - The current housing market is characterized by high demand and limited supply, keeping home prices elevated despite fluctuations in mortgage rates [13] - The median sale price of single-family homes has risen from $208,400 in Q1 2009 to $410,800 by Q2 2025, indicating a long-term upward trend [14] Buyer Strategies - Buyers are encouraged to consider various strategies such as purchasing smaller homes, exploring fixer-uppers, or considering condominiums to navigate the current market [17][20][22] - Exploring rate buydown options can also make current mortgage rates more manageable [24] Future Rate Predictions - The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts the 30-year fixed rate will remain around 6.4% throughout 2026, while Fannie Mae forecasts a drop to 5.9% by the end of 2026 [25]