Bitwise CIO Sees Bitcoin on a “10-Year Grind Up” With Steady Returns

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is expected to experience steady gains over the next decade, characterized by lower volatility and more measured returns, rather than explosive year-on-year rallies [1][3][8] Market Outlook - Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, predicts a prolonged upward trend for Bitcoin, indicating a "10-year grind upward of strong returns" with some fluctuations [3][8] - Hougan maintains a positive outlook for Bitcoin in 2026, reaffirming a forecast made in July prior to Bitcoin reaching an all-time high of $125,100 in October [3][4] Recent Price Movements - Bitcoin is currently trading around $87,800, reflecting a decline of approximately 3.8% over the past 30 days [4] - The asset's recent pullback from its October highs has sparked debate about whether the current market cycle has peaked, with some analysts suggesting a potential downturn in 2026 [4][5] Institutional vs. Retail Behavior - Hougan attributes Bitcoin's current price stability to "persistent, slow-moving institutional buying," which has cushioned the downside compared to previous cycles that experienced drawdowns of 60% or more [6][8] - Retail investor behavior has contributed to recent market weakness, as fast-moving retail investors exited positions in anticipation of a downturn [5][6] Diverging Analyst Opinions - Not all analysts share Hougan's optimistic view; veteran trader Peter Brandt has warned of a potential decline to $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026, citing macroeconomic risks and market structure concerns [7][8]