多元资产配置成共识 百亿级私募畅谈2026年策略

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment outlook for 2026, focusing on equity assets, gold, and the impact of macroeconomic factors on market trends [7][12]. Equity Assets - Equity assets are expected to remain a "must-have" in investment portfolios, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks likely to continue showing strong structural performance in 2026 [7][8]. - The decline in risk-free interest rates is anticipated to support the risk premium of equity assets, which are expected to benefit from a relatively loose global monetary and fiscal environment [8][9]. - The increasing competitiveness of Chinese companies in the global tech cycle is expected to attract overseas capital into Chinese assets, providing significant support for equity investments [8][9]. AI Sector - The AI-related capital expenditure is projected to continue growing in 2026, positively impacting industrial demand and stabilizing industrial product prices, which will benefit China's manufacturing profitability [8][11]. - Despite some overheating in specific AI stocks, the overall risk of systemic adjustment in the AI sector is considered low, with strong profit growth expected in the AI computing power segment [11][12]. - Key areas of focus for AI investments include advancements in foundational model capabilities, revenue growth from AI applications, and the financing progress of North American cloud providers [11]. Gold Investment - The core logic for gold price increases is expected to remain valid in 2026, driven by global central bank purchases and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid rising uncertainty [12][13]. - However, the potential for high-level fluctuations in gold prices exists due to the increased proportion of gold assets in investment portfolios as prices rise [12][13]. - The total holdings of global gold ETFs have reached 3,932 tons, indicating strong ongoing demand for physical gold [12]. Commodity Outlook - The company is optimistic about investment opportunities in copper, aluminum, and lithium carbonate, driven by ongoing capital expenditure in AI and power grids, despite supply constraints [13][14]. - The energy and chemical sectors are expected to present structural trading opportunities due to high inflation and supply-side adjustments [14][15]. - Silver is highlighted for its dual role in finance and industry, presenting significant investment opportunities amid supply tightness [14][15]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The company plans to focus on equity assets in 2026, particularly in technology, non-bank financials, and commodities, while also considering the economic recovery's impact on commodity markets [14][15]. - A diversified asset allocation strategy is deemed essential, with an emphasis on tracking micro changes in industries and timing trades effectively [14][15]. - In bond investments, the company will focus on the short to medium term, considering the potential for upward pressure on long-term bonds due to supply and inflation expectations [15].