MP Materials Gained 230% in 2025. Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold MP Stock for 2026?

Core Insights - MP Materials is a leading rare earth materials and magnetics company, operating the Mountain Pass mine, the only large-scale rare earth mining site in the Western Hemisphere [1][2] - The company produces neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) and other rare earth products essential for high-performance magnets used in various industries, including electric vehicles and defense systems [1] - MP Materials has seen significant stock performance, with a 250% gain over the past year, although it has experienced some volatility recently [3][4] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, MP Materials reported revenue of $53.6 million, a 15% decrease year-over-year, primarily due to the cessation of China concentrate sales, but slightly above analyst estimates [5] - The adjusted diluted EPS was -$0.10, outperforming consensus expectations of -$0.17, while the GAAP net loss increased to $41.8 million from $25.5 million a year ago [5] - REO production reached 13,254 metric tons, with NdPr oxide output hitting a record of 721 metric tons, reflecting a 21% sequential increase and a 51% year-over-year increase [6] Segment Performance - The materials segment revenue declined to $31.6 million, with an adjusted EBITDA of -$14.5 million, while the magnetics segment revenue rose to $21.9 million, achieving an adjusted EBITDA of +$9.5 million [6] - Consolidated adjusted EBITDA was -$12.6 million, with cash reserves remaining strong post-capital raises, although free cash flow remained negative amid expansion efforts [6] Future Outlook - Management anticipates a return to profitability in Q4 2025 and beyond, driven by a Department of Defense Price Protection Agreement and increased magnet production [7] - The company has guided capital expenditures for 2025 to the low end of the $150–175 million range, targeting heavy rare earth separation by mid-2026 [7]