Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has recovered some losses as the market weighs the timing of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and the potential for intervention by Japanese authorities during the year-end trading lull [1] Group 1: Bank of Japan's Policy and Market Reactions - The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% in December, the highest level since 1995, indicating a potential for further tightening if inflation expectations are met [3] - Despite the rate hike, the yen weakened as the market was disappointed by the lack of clear guidance on future monetary tightening from the Bank of Japan [3] - Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned against speculative movements in the yen, stating that authorities have the "absolute freedom" to take bold actions if currency trends do not align with fundamentals [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Predictions - There is a growing bearish sentiment towards the yen, particularly after the Bank of Japan's December rate hike failed to provide sustained support, reinforcing the view of the yen's structural weakness [3] - Strategists from institutions like JPMorgan and BNP Paribas predict that the yen could depreciate to 160 yen per dollar or weaker by the end of 2026, driven by significant US-Japan interest rate differentials and ongoing capital outflows [4] - The chief strategist at JPMorgan highlighted the yen's weak fundamentals, suggesting little change in the situation for the coming year, with predictions of the yen reaching 164 yen per dollar by the end of 2026 [4] Group 3: Capital Outflows and Economic Factors - Japanese retail investors have shown a strong preference for overseas assets, with net purchases through investment trusts hovering around 9.4 trillion yen (approximately 60 billion USD), indicating a trend that may continue to suppress the yen [5] - Corporate capital outflows are also a significant factor, with stable foreign direct investment from Japan, largely unaffected by cyclical factors or interest rate changes, contributing to the yen's weakness [5] - Analysts expect the yen's weak position to persist, with predictions of the dollar-yen exchange rate reaching 165 by the end of 2026, as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cycle appears to be nearing completion [5] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Some observers remain optimistic about the yen's long-term strength, with Goldman Sachs forecasting that the yen could eventually strengthen to 100 yen per dollar over the next decade, despite acknowledging short-term challenges [6]
交易员权衡日央行加息时机及政府干预风险 日元小幅回升
智通财经网·2025-12-29 08:58