Several wildcards for the Fed heading into 2026, says Fmr. Fed Vice Chair Roger Ferguson

分组1 - The Federal Reserve faces uncertainty regarding its leadership and independence, with potential implications for monetary policy and market reactions [1][6][10] - Current economic indicators show mixed signals, with unemployment rising to 4.6% and slowing job creation and wage growth, while GDP remains strong [2][3][13] - The upcoming Supreme Court case regarding the removal of a Fed governor could significantly impact perceptions of Fed independence and the authority of the president [7][8][9] 分组2 - The new chair of the Fed will need to establish credibility and independence, especially in light of public tensions with the president [6][11][12] - Inflation has consistently exceeded the Fed's target for five years, raising concerns about the Fed's credibility and the potential for future policy mistakes [13][14] - The labor market shows signs of imbalance, with rising unemployment potentially indicating a shift towards a more capital-intensive and productive economy [15][16]