世界在不确定性中寻找新平衡

Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to show resilience in 2025, with growth projected to exceed expectations despite challenges such as U.S. tariffs, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, and increased financial volatility [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, while the U.S. economy is expected to grow only 2.0% in 2025 and further decline to 1.7% in 2026 [1] - Emerging markets and developing economies are projected to be the main drivers of global growth, with a forecasted growth rate of 4.2% in 2025, particularly strong in ASEAN countries at 4.7% [1] Trade Dynamics - Global trade is undergoing a transformation, with a 4.9% year-on-year increase in global goods trade volume in the first half of 2025, and an annual forecast adjustment to 2.4% [2] - The growth in trade is attributed to both the "stockpiling effect" before U.S. tariffs and the expansion of trade among developing countries, with Asia contributing significantly to global trade growth [2] - The trade system faces deep challenges, with unilateral tariffs and geopolitical conflicts causing significant disruptions, as over 90% of global trade relies on bank financing [2] Technological and Green Transition - AI and green transition are identified as dual driving forces for the economy, with AI investments expected to boost global trade by 34% to 37% by 2040 [3] - However, the IMF warns that the current surge in AI investment resembles the internet bubble, posing risks of market corrections if returns do not meet expectations [3] - China's investments in renewable energy technologies have reduced global clean energy costs, with electric vehicle penetration exceeding 50%, contributing to global emissions reduction efforts [3] China's Economic Stability - China's GDP is projected to grow by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with total GDP expected to surpass 140 trillion yuan [4] - Consumption and manufacturing investment are identified as key growth engines, supported by policies aimed at expanding the domestic market and enhancing foreign investment access [4] - China's focus on AI and biotechnology in its 14th Five-Year Plan is expected to provide market opportunities and technology transfer for developing countries [4] Future Considerations - The resilience of the global economy in 2025 is attributed to technological breakthroughs and the rise of emerging economies, with a need for balance amid uncertainties in 2026 [4] - Trade policy disagreements, U.S. debt risks, and uncertainties in Japan's stimulus plans may increase market volatility, but opportunities remain in AI applications and green technology cost reductions [4] - Cooperation and openness are emphasized as essential for navigating economic challenges, with constructive dialogue among nations seen as key to alleviating trade tensions and improving global economic prospects [4]