贵金属“巨震星期一”：现货白银从+6%到-8%，金铂钯同步跳水

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in metal prices, particularly silver, has faced a significant correction, with notable declines in both futures and spot markets for silver, gold, platinum, and palladium [1][3]. Group 1: Market Movements - Spot silver initially rose nearly 6% but then fell over 8%, with an intraday drop of nearly 11%, resulting in a volatility exceeding 16 percentage points [1]. - Spot gold and Comex gold experienced a decline of nearly $200, with a daily drop exceeding 4% [3]. - Platinum and palladium saw declines of nearly 13% and over 15%, respectively [3]. Group 2: Margin Adjustments - The CME Group announced an increase in margin requirements for popular contracts including silver, gold, platinum, and palladium, effective after the close on December 29 [3]. - Historically, the CME has raised margins to reduce market disorder risks during periods of speculative trading [4]. Group 3: Historical Context - Previous surges in silver prices in 1980 and 2011 were closely linked to the CME's actions, which included multiple margin increases that led to significant price corrections [4][7]. - The "Hunt brothers' silver crisis" in the 1970s exemplifies how speculative trading can lead to drastic market corrections when exchanges impose trading restrictions [7]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Unlike past speculative-driven surges, the current increase in silver prices is supported by a tightening of physical supply, indicating a structural supply-demand imbalance [8]. - Silver's industrial applications, particularly in solar energy and electronics, contribute to its demand, while its lower price compared to gold makes it attractive to retail consumers [8]. - The total value of silver stored in London is approximately $65 billion, significantly smaller than gold's nearly $1.3 trillion, which affects market liquidity and stability [10].