政策突变，黄金白银大跌！极速跳水后，金属牛还在否

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - Multiple strong metal varieties experienced a sharp decline, with palladium and platinum hitting the limit down, and lithium carbonate also reaching the limit down [1] - NYMEX palladium dropped over 16%, platinum fell over 14%, COMEX gold decreased over 4%, and COMEX silver dropped over 7% [2] - The rapid decline in precious metals followed a period of short-term surges, attributed to technical indicator adjustments, profit-taking by investors, and increased margin requirements by exchanges [4] Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - Shanghai silver saw a peak increase of over 10%, reaching nearly 20,000 yuan/kg, with an annual increase exceeding 140% [5] - Shanghai gold reached new highs, surpassing 1,000 yuan/g, with an annual increase of over 60% [5] - The investment demand for precious metals remains strong, with global central bank gold purchases expected to exceed 1,000 tons for the fourth consecutive year [6] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Silver's industrial demand is expected to grow, with projections indicating that global photovoltaic silver usage will exceed 5,200 tons by 2025 [6] - Silver inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have dropped to 715 tons, the lowest level since July 2016, indicating tight supply [6] - Precious metals like silver and platinum have been at historically low prices, contributing to their recent price increases [6] Group 4: Energy Metals Market Overview - Lithium carbonate futures reached a peak of 130,000 yuan/ton before closing below 120,000 yuan/ton, marking a significant increase from under 60,000 yuan/ton earlier in the year [9] - Cobalt prices have risen significantly, reaching 443,500 yuan/ton, with an annual increase exceeding 160% [9] - The surge in energy metal prices is driven by a rebound from historical lows and an explosion in downstream energy storage demand [9][10] Group 5: Supply Constraints in Energy Metals - New regulations on lithium mining in China are expected to tighten supply, with significant reductions in mining rights in key regions [10] - Cobalt imports have declined due to new export quota policies in the Democratic Republic of Congo, leading to low domestic inventory levels [10] Group 6: Industrial Metals Price Trends - Tungsten prices have surged dramatically, with prices increasing from 210,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 680,000 yuan/ton, a rise of 220% [15] - Copper prices have reached historical highs, with Shanghai copper futures surpassing 100,000 yuan/ton [16] - The pricing logic for copper has shifted, with increasing demand driven by the transition to electric-driven energy systems [16] Group 7: Key Stocks in Precious and Energy Metals - Key stocks in precious metals include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Zhongjin Gold, with significant annual increases [6][8] - Energy metal stocks include Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, and Jiangte Electric, reflecting the strong performance in the sector [10][11] - Industrial metal stocks such as Xiamen Tungsten, Zhongtung High-tech, and Jiangxi Copper have also shown notable price increases [17][19]