触发“创伤记忆”，韩国走向“第三次外汇危机”？

Core Viewpoint - There is a growing sense of "crisis" in South Korea as the Korean won continues to weaken against the US dollar, approaching the critical psychological level of 1500 won per dollar, a level not seen since the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 2008 global financial crisis. This situation has led to concerns about a potential "third foreign exchange crisis" [1]. Group 1: Currency Fluctuations and Government Response - The Korean won started 2025 at just over 1400 won per dollar, fluctuating between 1350 and 1485 won throughout the year, indicating a high volatility range [2]. - In response to the ongoing pressure on the won, the South Korean government has intensified its regulatory measures, including verbal warnings against excessive weakness of the won and tax support plans to boost domestic investment [2][3]. - Despite these interventions, the won remains in a high volatility range, with recent fluctuations around 1435 won per dollar [2]. Group 2: Historical Context and Structural Issues - Historical experiences from the 1997 and 2008 crises have made South Korea acutely aware of foreign exchange issues, leading to a focus on maintaining foreign exchange reserves as a safety net during extreme situations [7]. - The current weakening of the won is attributed to multiple structural factors, including significant capital outflows and a growing trend of domestic investors purchasing overseas assets, which exacerbates the supply-demand imbalance for the won [8][9]. - South Korea's net foreign assets have exceeded 380 billion dollars, and while this provides a financial cushion, the ability to liquidate these assets quickly in a crisis is limited [9]. Group 3: Economic Confidence and Structural Reforms - Analysts suggest that the underlying cause of the won's depreciation is a loss of investor confidence in the South Korean economy, driven by structural issues such as low growth rates and a deteriorating business environment [10][11]. - The government is urged to focus on structural reforms rather than temporary measures to restore market confidence and stabilize the currency [10]. - Strengthening economic ties with China through increased cooperation could provide opportunities for South Korean companies, potentially alleviating some of the pressures on the won [11].