甲醇短期区间运行为主 2026年一季度关注反弹机会

Core Viewpoint - The methanol industry chain is under pressure due to rising coal prices and shrinking downstream profits, leading to a potential downward adjustment in price levels for the year, with a focus on inventory reduction in Q1 next year and price rebound opportunities following the commissioning of new MTO facilities [1][7]. Supply Dynamics - Methanol production capacity in China is expected to increase by 7.05 million tons in 2025, with a growth rate of 6.51%, primarily driven by integrated facilities [1]. - By 2026, domestic methanol capacity will further increase by 3.7 million tons, but the growth rate will slow to 3.38%, with limited actual marketable methanol increment [1][2]. - The exit of outdated production capacity is expected to have a limited impact, as only about 1.6% of the total domestic methanol capacity remains from facilities over 20 years old [2]. Coal Market Outlook - The coal market is projected to enter a new phase characterized by stable total volume, optimized structure, and price recovery by 2026, with domestic coal production growth expected to slow down [3]. - The price of thermal coal is anticipated to rise to 800-850 RMB per ton by 2026, providing support for raw material costs [3]. Import Trends - Non-Iranian methanol imports are expected to continue increasing, with a projected total methanol import volume of 15.8 million tons in 2026, reflecting an 11.27% year-on-year growth [4]. - The shift in Iranian methanol exports towards China is anticipated due to sanctions affecting Indian imports, which will likely continue into 2026 [3][4]. Demand Insights - The MTO sector is expected to contribute significantly to methanol demand, with two new MTO facilities set to come online in 2026, leading to an actual demand increase of 3.73 million tons [5][6]. - Traditional downstream demand is projected to grow by 2.01 million tons in 2026, with overall demand growth from MTO and traditional sectors amounting to 5.74 million tons, a 51.42% increase from 2025 [6]. Export Performance - Domestic methanol exports saw a significant increase of 134.38% year-on-year in the first ten months of 2025, with expectations for exports to reach around 300,000 tons in 2026 [6][7]. - The improvement in export profits and high domestic inventory levels are driving the increase in export volumes [6]. Overall Market Outlook - The methanol market is expected to experience a supply-demand gap due to the peak of non-integrated production and the continued release of MTO and traditional downstream capacities, which may be compensated by increased imports [7].