评论 | 世界在不确定性中寻找新平衡

Economic Overview - The global economy in 2025 is expected to show resilience despite challenges such as U.S. tariffs, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, and increased financial volatility, with growth projected to exceed expectations [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, while the U.S. economy is expected to grow only 2.0% in 2025 and further decline to 1.7% in 2026 [1] - Emerging markets and developing economies are projected to be the main drivers of global growth, with a forecasted growth rate of 4.2% in 2025, particularly strong in ASEAN countries at 4.7% [1] Trade Dynamics - Global trade is undergoing a transformation, with a 4.9% year-on-year increase in global goods trade volume in the first half of 2025, and an annual forecast adjustment to 2.4% [2] - The growth in trade is attributed to both pre-tariff stockpiling in the U.S. and expanding trade among developing countries, with Asia contributing significantly to global trade growth [2] - The trade system faces deep challenges, including unilateral tariffs and geopolitical conflicts, which have created significant turmoil in the past 80 years [2] Technological and Green Transition - AI and green transitions are identified as dual driving forces for economic growth, with AI investments expected to boost global trade by 34% to 37% by 2040 [3] - However, there are risks associated with AI investments, which may resemble the internet bubble if returns do not meet expectations [3] - China's investments in renewable energy technologies have reduced global clean energy costs, with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeding 50% [3] China's Economic Stability - China's GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025 is reported at 5.2%, with the total expected to surpass 140 trillion yuan for the year, driven by consumption and manufacturing investment [4] - The country is enhancing its macroeconomic stability through policies aimed at high-level opening up and expanding cooperation, including the launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port [4] - China's focus on AI and biotechnology in its 14th Five-Year Plan is expected to provide market opportunities and technology transfer for developing countries [4] Future Outlook - The resilience of the global economy in 2025 is attributed to technological breakthroughs and the rise of emerging economies, with a need to find balance amid uncertainties in 2026 [4] - Potential market volatility may arise from trade policy disagreements, U.S. debt risks, and uncertainties in Japan's stimulus plans, but opportunities remain in AI applications and green technology [4]