中金：投资中国优质券商正当时 重点把握三条主线

Core Viewpoint - The growth of the Chinese securities industry is benefiting from economic development and capital market reforms, with leading domestic brokerages expected to accelerate their progress towards becoming world-class investment banks during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, enhancing their business scale, professional capabilities, and profitability [1] Group 1: Industry Future Trends - The industry is poised to leverage opportunities arising from increasingly diverse and complex demands from enterprises, institutions, and residents, necessitating higher service standards [2] - Key strategies include enhancing service capabilities to support the transformation of the real economy, deepening capital market reforms, and addressing residents' asset allocation needs through wealth management and asset management collaboration [2] Group 2: Investment Value of the Sector - Historical underperformance of the brokerage sector is attributed to competition homogenization and significant earnings volatility, but future improvements in industry structure and profitability are expected to enhance long-term investment value [3] - Regulatory emphasis on supporting strong firms and accelerating industry consolidation will drive increased concentration and a dual focus on comprehensive and specialized development [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities for 2026 - The sector is anticipated to exhibit a balanced approach with three main investment lines, despite a stagnant stock price performance in 2025 [3] - Overall profitability is projected to grow by 12%, although there will be increased differentiation among business lines and brokerages [3] - Policy support is expected to catalyze growth, with a focus on normalizing IPO issuances and expanding product offerings [3] Group 4: Key Investment Lines - Three key investment lines are highlighted: the performance elasticity of leading investment banking and private equity businesses as secondary market activity translates to the primary market, the recognition of performance returns generated by institutional investors, and the significant growth of international business related to comprehensive investment banks and internet brokerages [4]