Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-12-30 01:07Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the macroeconomic trends driving the surge in gold prices this year will lead to a rise in copper prices by 2026, as the old order collapses and a new pricing structure for copper is established [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends - The "collapse of the old order" in 2025 will result in a surge in gold prices, while 2026 will see the establishment of a new order that will drive copper prices higher [1] - The era of Tariff 2.0 is reshaping the global economic order, accelerating the restructuring of supply chains, with copper being a core raw material for industrial manufacturing, thus expanding its demand as the industrial chain shifts [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Dynamics - In 2025, the focus of major power competition will be on tariff impacts, leading to an increase in gold prices, while in 2026, the competition will shift towards technology and security, resulting in higher copper prices [1] - The demand for copper will continue to grow due to new momentum generated by the AI industry, particularly in areas such as AI data centers [1] Group 3: Domestic Demand and Monetary Policy - In 2025, major powers will concentrate on tariff disputes, which will elevate gold prices, while in 2026, there will be a return to stable domestic demand in both China and the U.S., contributing to a rise in copper prices [1] - The gradual transmission of monetary easing policies to traditional industrial sectors will improve manufacturing sentiment, directly linking to a recovery in the old momentum demand for copper, thereby solidifying its demand base [1]