Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-30 01:12Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates that while copper and gold prices have reached historical highs in 2025, the copper-to-gold ratio is at a historical low, suggesting a complex relationship that will influence copper prices in 2026. The copper-to-gold ratio is used as a key indicator for predicting copper's performance due to the significant increase in gold prices, which saw over a 70% year-on-year rise, marking one of the highest points since the 1960s [1][27][28]. Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - The copper and gold markets are experiencing unprecedented highs, with both metals reaching historical peaks in 2025 [3][30]. - The copper-to-gold ratio has declined to its lowest level since 2001, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [4][31]. - The extreme low of the copper-to-gold ratio suggests that the significant rise in gold prices is a central contradiction that needs to be addressed [5][32]. Group 2: Macro Trends Influencing Copper Prices - Three macro trends are identified as catalysts for the anticipated rise in copper prices: the Federal Reserve's monetary easing, the emergence of new industrial cycles driven by technology, and the restructuring of global supply chains due to trade wars [28][39]. - The macroeconomic environment that has driven gold prices up in 2025 is expected to similarly boost copper prices in 2026, as the old economic order collapses and a new one is established [41][44]. Group 3: Structural Changes in Demand - The demand for refined copper is expected to increase due to the relocation of manufacturing and the need for backup in critical supply chains, which will enhance the scarcity of copper at the mining level [44]. - The focus on technology competition between major powers is projected to shift capital expenditures towards the tech sector, significantly increasing the demand for copper, particularly in AI and renewable energy sectors [45][50]. Group 4: Future Consumption Projections - Projections indicate that global copper consumption will continue to rise, with significant increases expected in sectors such as electric vehicles and renewable energy, where copper demand is anticipated to grow from 2% in 2021 to 10% by 2027 [50][46]. - The overall copper consumption is expected to increase from 2,304 million tons in 2020 to 3,015 million tons by 2030, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [50][46].