光大期货：12月30日金融日报

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced fluctuations, closing up 0.04%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.49% and 0.66% respectively, with over 3,300 stocks declining across the three major markets [2][5] - The trading volume exceeded 2.15 trillion yuan, indicating a relatively stable market sentiment despite the mixed performance of indices [2][5] - The upcoming December Political Bureau meeting and Central Economic Work Conference are expected to enhance policy impact on the market in the short term [2][5] Economic Policy Insights - The important meetings emphasized achieving a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan, with an expected GDP growth target of 5% for next year remaining unchanged [2][5] - Policy focus will continue on "stabilizing domestic demand" and "promoting new quality productivity," with a strong emphasis on combining investments in physical and human capital [2][5] - The government aims to boost residents' income levels and consumption capacity as key conditions for macro inflation expectations to rise [2][5] - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain necessary deficits and total debt levels, with a slight increase in scale compared to this year [2][5] Monetary Policy and Bond Market - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 482.3 billion yuan at a rate of 1.4%, maintaining the same rate as the previous operation [3][8] - The bond futures market saw declines across various maturities, with the 30-year contract down 0.91% and the 10-year contract down 0.28% [3][8] - The Central Economic Work Conference indicated a continuation of moderately loose monetary policy, with a cautious approach to interest rate cuts expected in 2026 [3][8] Precious Metals Market - The precious metals market saw significant declines, with London spot gold dropping 4.4% to $4,331.35 per ounce, and silver falling over 9% [4][9] - The rapid price increases of silver, platinum, and palladium have led to overheating in the market, with volatility rising sharply [4][9] - The gold-silver ratio has decreased significantly, indicating a buildup of risk, while the rapid price increases may suppress physical demand [4][9]