不锈钢：盘面窄幅震荡 强预期和弱现实持续博弈

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing a slight price stabilization, with increased inquiries and improved trading conditions, while supply pressures are easing due to reduced production and inventory adjustments [3] Supply - In November, the crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills is estimated at 3.4592 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 61,800 tons (1.6% drop), but a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2] - December crude steel production is projected at 3.2258 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.65% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.29% [2] - The 300 series output in December is expected to be 1.7147 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.6% [2] - Steel mills are facing limited production cuts, but year-end maintenance is increasing, potentially leading to more proactive reductions due to loss pressures [2] Inventory - Social inventory is decreasing at an accelerated pace, but high inventory levels remain a significant concern [2] - As of December 26, social inventory for the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 477,100 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 7,000 tons [2] - On December 29, stainless steel futures inventory is reported at 47,462 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 850 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with increased inquiries and improved trading conditions as year-end stocking activities are nearly completed [3] - Macro factors include the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts and the domestic central bank's liquidity injections, which support growth and consumption [3] - Nickel ore supply is tightening due to seasonal weather impacts in the Philippines and Indonesia, with expectations of price declines in domestic nickel ore [3] - Nickel iron prices are showing strength due to tightening raw material expectations, with recent inquiries around 910 yuan per nickel [3] - The chromium market remains firm due to limited resource circulation and slowed supply increases [3] Overall Outlook - The supply pressure is easing slightly, with strengthened cost support from the nickel and nickel iron markets, but demand remains weak in the off-season [3] - Market sentiment is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a reference range of 12,500 to 13,200 [4]