瑞郎年末低位震荡 2026年下行趋势难改

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate continues to weaken, with expectations for further declines in 2026 due to diverging monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank [2][3] Group 1: Exchange Rate Performance - As of December 30, 2025, the USD/CHF is trading around 0.7895, close to a three-month low of 0.7860, with an annual decline exceeding 10% [1] - The exchange rate has shown a narrow trading range of 0.7880-0.7920 recently, with a lack of sustained momentum for recovery despite a brief technical rebound [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2025, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, with a 73.3% probability of an additional 50 basis points cut in 2026 [2] - In contrast, the Swiss National Bank has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0%, indicating a high threshold for returning to negative rates, despite a drop in the November CPI to the lower limit of 0% [2] Group 3: Additional Factors Influencing the Exchange Rate - The Swiss franc's safe-haven appeal has strengthened, attracting inflows even at zero interest rates amid fluctuating global risk appetite [2] - A trade agreement has significantly reduced tariffs on Swiss goods from 39% to 15%, alleviating export pressures and providing fundamental support for the Swiss franc [2] - The broader weakness of the US dollar, with a decline of approximately 9% in the dollar index, has contributed to the downward movement of the USD/CHF [2] Group 4: Inflation and Policy Challenges - The Swiss National Bank faces dual challenges of deflationary pressures and limited intervention capacity, with a CPI of 0% and a lowered inflation forecast of 0.3% for 2026 [3] - The potential for the Swiss National Bank to reintroduce negative rates is complicated by external pressures, including being labeled a "currency manipulator" by the US [3] Group 5: Market Outlook - Most international investment banks maintain a bearish outlook on the USD/CHF, with expectations of limited short-term rebounds and a long-term downward trend [3] - Key resistance levels for potential rebounds are identified at 0.8060 and 0.8200, while a "bear flag" pattern suggests a possible acceleration of declines if critical support levels are breached [3] - Investors should monitor upcoming Swiss CPI data, Federal Reserve communications, and US non-farm payroll data for potential short-term volatility, while focusing on interest rate differentials and Swiss National Bank policy signals for long-term trends [3]