日元年末逼近155关口 2026年或向160挺近

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate remains strong, trading around 154.85 as of December 30, 2025, with expectations for it to break the 160 mark in 2026 despite a nearly 10% decline in the USD index throughout the year [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Policy Divergence - The strength of the USD/JPY is primarily due to the structural divergence in monetary policies between the US and Japan, with the Federal Reserve expected to slow its rate cuts in 2026 after a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points to 3.50%-3.75% in 2025 [2]. - The Bank of Japan raised rates to 0.75% in December but is proceeding cautiously, with market expectations for the next rate hike not fully priced in until September 2026, maintaining a negative real interest rate that diminishes the yen's attractiveness [2]. Group 2: Additional Factors Influencing the Yen - Increased carry trade activity is evident, with leveraged funds showing the highest short position against the yen since July 2024, as investors borrow low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yielding currencies [2]. - There is ongoing capital outflow pressure from Japan, with retail investors significantly buying overseas stocks and corporate mergers and acquisitions reaching multi-year highs [2]. - Persistent inflation in the US may limit the Fed's ability to cut rates further, while increasing pressure on Japanese government bonds could weaken the yen's safe-haven appeal [2]. Group 3: Market Intervention and Future Outlook - The yen is approaching the 160 level, which could trigger official intervention, as Japanese officials express concerns over speculative volatility in the exchange rate [3]. - Analysts believe that mere intervention may not reverse the yen's long-term weakness, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive fiscal strategy from the Japanese government [3]. - Most international investment banks maintain a bullish outlook on USD/JPY for 2026, with forecasts ranging from 160 to 165, driven by the slow pace of rate hikes from the Bank of Japan, ongoing capital outflows, and a deceleration in Fed rate cuts [3].