长江有色：美联储内部分歧美指微涨空头回补 30日锡价大跌

Group 1 - The futures market is experiencing a slight increase in the US dollar index due to short covering, while overnight London tin prices fell by 5.84%, closing at $40,010, a decrease of $2,480 from the previous trading day with a trading volume of 1,281 contracts and an open interest of 23,885 contracts, which decreased by 10 [1] - Domestic futures market saw significant declines, with the main contract for Shanghai tin (2602) closing at 319,290 CNY/ton, down 23,050 CNY, representing a drop of 6.73% [1] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported a tin inventory of 5,145 tons as of December 29, an increase of 250 tons from the previous day [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai tin futures market experienced a broad decline, with the main contract opening at 334,200 CNY/ton and dropping to 318,690 CNY, a decrease of 23,650 CNY [2] - The market is facing a "stress test" as both domestic and international markets encounter liquidity and sentiment pressures, influenced by factors such as stock unlocks and capital withdrawals in the A-share market [2] - Supply-side changes indicate a potential recovery in exports from traditional production areas like Myanmar and Indonesia, while geopolitical issues in the Democratic Republic of Congo remain a variable affecting supply expectations [2] - High tin prices are negatively impacting downstream consumption, particularly in traditional electronic manufacturing, leading to low purchasing willingness despite potential growth in emerging sectors like AI and automotive electronics [2] Group 3 - Recent price movements in the futures market are heavily influenced by the sharp declines in gold and copper prices, indicating a strong financial attribute and susceptibility to volatility [3] - Accumulation of visible inventories domestically and internationally is a direct evidence of weak demand and poor spot market digestion, putting pressure on prices [3] - The short-term outlook for tin prices suggests limited upward movement due to the potential recovery in supply and ongoing demand suppression from high prices, with expectations of significant price declines [3]