瞭望｜可控核聚变进入产业化前夜

Core Insights - The commercialization of "ultimate energy" is no longer a science fiction concept but is entering a critical phase of industrialization with narrowing windows and diverging paths [2][9] - The global competition in fusion energy is transitioning from laboratory research to engineering practice and commercial application [2][3] Investment Landscape - The global fusion industry has experienced explosive growth, with total investments rising from $1.9 billion in 2021 to $9.7 billion, including an additional $2.6 billion in 2024 alone [1] - Nearly 40 countries are advancing fusion plans, with over 160 fusion devices either operational, under construction, or planned [3][4] Technological Developments - Three main technological routes for achieving controllable nuclear fusion are currently being pursued: magnetic confinement fusion, inertial confinement fusion, and magnetic inertial confinement fusion [3] - Significant milestones include the successful installation of the 400-ton, 18-meter diameter Dewar base for the BEST device in China, aiming for the first global fusion energy demonstration by 2030, ahead of the ITER project by over a decade [3][4] China's Unique Path - China is adopting a unique approach that balances ambition with pragmatism, focusing on a "three-in-one" ecosystem that integrates continuous innovation, resource integration, and rapid iteration [6][8] - The Chinese government has included fusion energy in its 14th Five-Year Plan, providing a clear direction and long-term expectations for the industry [6][7] Collaborative Ecosystem - A collaborative innovation ecosystem is being established in China, involving government, industry, academia, and finance to tackle common technological challenges [8] - The establishment of the China Fusion Energy Company, with a registered capital of 15 billion yuan, aims to lead large-scale experiments and material research [7] Challenges Ahead - The commercialization of controllable nuclear fusion faces significant challenges, including fundamental bottlenecks in core materials, extreme engineering integration challenges, and an immature industrial ecosystem [10][11] - Key hurdles include the need for advanced materials that can withstand extreme conditions, the integration of complex engineering systems, and the establishment of a robust regulatory framework [10][12]