华泰期货：碳酸锂波动剧烈 市场已偏离基本面逻辑

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market experienced a significant decline, with the main contract dropping by 7.89% to 118,820 yuan/ton, influenced by profit-taking from recent price increases and discussions around sodium-ion battery alternatives [2][7][8]. Market Performance - The main contract 2605 saw a reduction of 64,690 contracts, reaching a total open interest of 945,600 contracts, which is a decrease of 99,400 contracts [2][7]. - The current price drop is attributed to the rapid increase in prices previously, leading to profit-taking by long positions [2][8]. Inventory Data - According to SMM statistics, the current spot inventory stands at 109,773 tons, a decrease of 652 tons month-on-month [2][7]. - Smelter inventory is reported at 17,851 tons, down by 239 tons, while downstream inventory is at 39,892 tons, down by 1,593 tons. Other inventory increased by 1,180 tons to 52,030 tons [2][7]. Market Dynamics - The ongoing inventory reduction is slowing down, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [2][7]. - The emergence of sodium-ion battery technology as a viable alternative due to the high cost of lithium carbonate may impact future lithium battery demand, particularly in energy storage applications [2][8]. Market Sentiment - The market is currently experiencing high volatility, with significant fluctuations driven by news and sentiment in the non-ferrous and precious metals sectors [2][8].