国泰君安期货：昔日“上涨枭雄”缘何回调？节前贵金属遭遇多重压力

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has experienced a significant pullback, with gold prices dropping over 3% and silver prices falling more than 6%, reversing the previous bullish trend. This rapid adjustment has notably suppressed market bullish sentiment [2][12]. Market Status - As of the latest morning session, the main gold futures contract (2602) has fallen back below the 1000 mark, but showed signs of resistance at previous support levels around 970, indicating that the overall technical structure remains relatively stable [3][12]. - The main silver futures contract (2602) is fluctuating around the 18000 mark, and has not breached short-term support levels near 17609, maintaining a generally strong upward bias [3][12]. Potential Reasons for Recent Adjustments 1. Margin Policy Adjustments: The CME Group raised the margin requirements for gold and silver futures on December 29, aiming to address recent market volatility and enhance risk coverage. This has increased trading costs and pressure on positions. Concurrently, the Shanghai Futures Exchange also raised margin ratios and price limits, reinforcing tightening regulatory expectations domestically. This dual pressure has dampened trading enthusiasm and leverage space [5][14]. 2. Bank of Japan's Rate Hike Signals: The latest minutes from the Bank of Japan indicate that several members believe actual interest rates remain very low, suggesting potential future rate hikes. The recent increase of the benchmark rate to 0.75% marks a 30-year high, which may lead to a reversal of popular "carry trades," where investors sell high-yield assets like precious metals to buy back yen for low-cost financing. This expectation has influenced market sentiment negatively towards dollar-denominated assets like gold and silver [6][15]. 3. Pre-Holiday Position Reductions: In light of the aforementioned factors, market participants have shown a clear tendency to reduce positions ahead of the New Year holiday. Speculative funds that previously drove prices up are now exiting due to concerns over holiday risks, increased costs from margin hikes, and a desire to lock in profits from recent price increases. Investors are advised to remain cautious and manage positions carefully as market focus may shift to macro events post-holiday [7][16].