合成橡胶：基本面支撑有限 但商品氛围偏强 BR短期宽幅震荡

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of December 29, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 8600 (+200) CNY/ton; CIF price for butadiene in China is 965 (+0) USD/ton; the market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) at Qilu Petrochemical is 11450 (+150) CNY/ton, with a price difference of -3250 (+230) CNY/ton for styrene-butadiene rubber and a basis difference of -150 (+185) CNY/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In November, China's butadiene production was 483,600 tons, up 5.8% month-on-month; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 130,300 tons, down 5.3% month-on-month; semi-steel tire production was 58.31 million units, up 12.8% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year; full-steel tire production was 13.01 million units, down 5.5% month-on-month and up 4.8% year-on-year [2] - As of December 25, the operating rates in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry showed differentiation, with butadiene industry operating rate at 70.6%, up 0.1% month-on-month; high cis-styrene-butadiene rubber industry operating rate at 76.8%, up 0.9% month-on-month; semi-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate at 70.4%, up 0.5% month-on-month; full-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate at 61.7%, down 3% month-on-month [2] Inventory Levels - As of December 24, butadiene port inventory was 43,300 tons, up 7,300 tons; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory was 27,600 tons, up 1,250 tons, a 4.5% increase; trader inventory was 5,690 tons, down 720 tons, an 11.2% decrease [3] Market Analysis - On December 29, the market sentiment for commodities remains strong, with BR prices rising; the main contract for synthetic rubber BR2602 closed at 11,600 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.96% compared to the previous day's settlement price. The domestic supply of butadiene is relatively high, and with a significant amount of imported cargo, port inventories are operating at high levels, indicating a generally ample supply. However, the demand for butadiene remains strong, and it is expected to fluctuate. The supply side shows that only the Dushanzi and Maoming styrene-butadiene rubber facilities continue to be offline, while other facilities are operating at high levels. Demand is expected to decrease due to maintenance schedules among tire manufacturers during the New Year holiday. Overall, the cost side is expected to fluctuate, with high supply levels and limited fundamental support for BR, but the market sentiment remains strong, leading to wide fluctuations in BR prices [3]