智通财经网·2025-12-30 03:45Core Viewpoint - MGM China Holdings (02282) has experienced a significant decline in stock price, dropping over 17% recently, with a current price of HKD 12.48, reflecting a further decrease of 3.33% [1] Group 1: Financial Impact - According to a report by Citi, starting in 2026, MGM China will increase the royalty fee paid to its parent company, MGM International, to 3.5%, which is higher than the 3% charged by Wynn Macau and 1.5% by Sands China [1] - Citi has revised its adjusted EBITDA forecasts for MGM China for 2026 and 2027 down by 6.3% to 6.7% [1] - Morgan Stanley projects that the brand usage fee for MGM China will reach HKD 1.2 billion in 2026, a substantial increase from HKD 600 million in 2025 [1] Group 2: EBITDA Projections - Morgan Stanley anticipates a 7% decline in MGM China's enterprise EBITDA for 2026 compared to previous expectations, with a year-on-year decrease of 5% [1] - The EBITDA margin is expected to narrow by 220 basis points, with the brand usage fee accounting for 15.2% of enterprise EBITDA [1] - Citi has lowered its target price for MGM China from HKD 22.6 to HKD 20.9 while maintaining an "outperform" rating [1]