【新华财经调查】光伏组件退役潮即将启幕 千亿回收市场有待破局

Core Insights - The photovoltaic (PV) industry in China is facing a significant wave of component retirements as early installations reach the end of their operational life, with a projected surge in retirements starting in 2025 and peaking around 2030 [5][6][7] - The recycling market for retired PV components is expected to reach a scale of over 100 billion yuan by 2040, but the industry currently faces multiple challenges including insufficient retirement volumes, high costs, and a lack of industry standards [5][6][10] Industry Overview - As of November 2023, China's solar power installed capacity reached 1.16 billion kilowatts, marking a year-on-year growth of 41.9%, maintaining its position as the world's largest solar power producer [6] - The lifespan of PV components is typically around 20 years, leading to a forecasted waste generation of approximately 140,000 tons by 2030 and a cumulative waste of about 20 million tons by 2040 [6][7] Recycling Market Dynamics - The recycling market is anticipated to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a cumulative market size of 260 billion yuan by 2030 and over 420 billion yuan by 2050 [7] - The recycling process is complicated by high costs and the need for technological advancements, with current recycling rates and methods requiring optimization [12][14] Challenges in the Recycling Industry - The current recycling industry is characterized by a mismatch between theoretical retirement volumes and actual market conditions, primarily due to economic considerations and regulatory barriers [9][10] - The market is experiencing chaotic competition, with many small players lacking proper environmental certifications, leading to environmental pollution and price distortions [11][12] Corporate Strategies and Investments - Both state-owned and private enterprises are investing in the recycling sector, focusing on technology development and production line construction to prepare for the upcoming retirement wave [13][14] - Major investments include over 18 billion yuan in large-scale recycling projects, with significant processing capacities planned for the near future [14] Future Outlook - Industry experts express optimism about the future of the PV recycling market, emphasizing the need for coordinated efforts among government, industry, and enterprises to overcome existing challenges and promote sustainable development [16][17] - With appropriate policies and market mechanisms in place, China is positioned to become a global leader in the photovoltaic circular economy [17]