Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing a significant price drop due to a combination of speculative withdrawal, changing macroeconomic sentiment, and deteriorating industrial fundamentals, leading to a shift from a tight supply-demand balance to a more relaxed one [1]. Supply and Demand Status - Supply-side conditions are improving as production resumes in Myanmar and Indonesia, and domestic smelting rates are increasing, leading to a gradual recovery in supply [2]. - Demand remains weak, particularly in traditional sectors like consumer electronics and tinplate, while emerging sectors show limited growth due to high tin prices suppressing downstream purchasing [2]. Industry Chain Dynamics - The upstream sector benefits from previous high prices but faces challenges from significant price volatility and long-term resource quality decline [3]. - The midstream sector is seeing a retreat in speculative sentiment, shifting from stockpiling to selling for risk aversion, resulting in reduced liquidity [4]. - The downstream sector is under the most pressure, with profits in solder and PCB segments being severely squeezed, leading to operational difficulties for small and medium enterprises and accelerating industry consolidation [4]. Short-term Outlook and Strategic Response - The tin market is undergoing a "stress test," transitioning from an "AI story-driven" phase to a focus on fundamental realities, with prices expected to fluctuate between 310,000 and 330,000 yuan/ton [5]. - If demand continues to weaken and inventory accumulates, there is a risk of further price declines [5]. - Different segments of the industry need to respond accordingly: upstream companies should lock in profits and manage production rates, while downstream firms should maintain low inventory and adopt batch purchasing strategies [5].
锡价“闪崩”深度解读：从“非理性繁荣”到“基本面回归”急转弯 短期走势如何？
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-30 05:37