银价“跳水”金价下跌，贵金属回调风险累积

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in silver prices, dropping nearly 5%, alongside gold prices falling below $4,500 per ounce, indicates a profit-taking trend among speculative investors, suggesting increased volatility in silver prices [1]. Group 1: Price Movements and Trends - Precious metal prices have risen significantly this year, driven by central bank purchases, inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and three consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1]. - Year-to-date, silver has increased over 150%, while gold has risen approximately 70%, with silver's gains significantly outpacing those of gold [1]. - The price surge in silver is attributed to strong industrial demand, low global inventories at a ten-year low, and its inclusion in critical mineral lists [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Major silver-producing countries, Mexico and Peru, have seen a reduction in output this year, while the growth in silver recycling has been insufficient, leading to an overall supply shortage [1]. - Silver's market is characterized by its smaller size and shallower depth compared to gold, which contributes to its more pronounced price volatility [1]. Group 3: Market Risks and Speculation - The influx of funds into the silver market has resulted in more extreme price fluctuations, highlighting its speculative nature [2]. - Analysts warn that the current market sentiment is overly heated, leading to irrational trading and significant deviations from actual net asset values for silver-related funds, posing substantial risks [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has issued notices to remind the market to manage risks and has made arrangements regarding margin requirements and price limits for trading during the New Year period [2].