2025年四季度鸡蛋价格底部震荡 2026年一季度或先涨后降

Core Viewpoint - The egg market is experiencing increased supply pressure and weak demand, leading to further declines in egg and old hen prices, pushing the industry into a loss-making zone [1] Group 1: Market Supply and Demand - In Q4 2025, the average price of eggs was 2.96 yuan per jin, down 5.73% from Q3, while the average price of old hens fell to 4.03 yuan per jin, a decrease of 18.75% [1] - The average inventory of laying hens was approximately 1.356 billion, a decrease of 0.51% quarter-on-quarter, although still at historically high levels [1][5] - Sales volume in consumption areas decreased by 10.56% quarter-on-quarter, indicating weakened terminal consumption and deepening supply-demand contradictions [1] Group 2: Cost and Profitability - The cost of producing eggs in Q4 was 2.95 yuan per jin, a decrease of 2.64% from Q3, primarily due to falling feed prices [3] - Despite lower production costs, the average gross profit per jin of eggs fell to -0.19 yuan, worsening by 0.10 yuan compared to Q3, indicating widespread losses in the breeding sector [3][6] Group 3: Future Outlook - For Q1 2026, the egg market is expected to see a rebalancing phase with supply pressure easing and demand initially increasing before declining [1][7] - The price of eggs is projected to rise initially in January, potentially reaching 3.30-3.50 yuan per jin, before declining again in February due to reduced demand [7]