【财经分析】2025年基础设施公募REITs市场观察：扩容、分化与韧性生长

Core Insights - The domestic public REITs market in China is steadily progressing under favorable policies and capital interest, characterized by three distinct features: expansion, differentiation, and breaking through challenges [1] Group 1: Market Expansion - In 2025, the public REITs market in China entered a deep development phase, with 20 new projects launched, raising a total of 43.45 billion yuan (approximately 4.35 billion USD) [2] - As of December 29, 2025, the number of listed public REITs reached 78, with a cumulative issuance scale of about 201.75 billion yuan (approximately 20.17 billion USD), indicating significant growth potential [2] - The issuance pace in 2025 slowed compared to 2024, where 29 projects raised 65.52 billion yuan (approximately 6.55 billion USD), but the normalization of the expansion mechanism effectively supplemented market growth [2] Group 2: Structural Differentiation - The market has seen a breakthrough in asset types, with new fields such as digital infrastructure and urban renewal emerging, including the first data center REITs and urban renewal REITs [3] - Institutional investors dominate the market, accounting for 97.21% of the REITs market by mid-2025, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the end of 2024, driven by the stable cash flow characteristics of REITs [3] - The trading activity varies significantly among different asset types, with new infrastructure REITs showing a daily average turnover rate of 0.92%, while transportation infrastructure leads in monthly transaction volume [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The primary market remains robust, with high subscription enthusiasm, exemplified by the 华夏中海商业REIT achieving a subscription multiple of 361.9 times from public investors [5] - In contrast, the secondary market faced adjustments in the second half of 2025, with the 中证REITs total return index declining by 1.44% over a week, reflecting a broader market correction of nearly 6% [6][7] - Factors contributing to the secondary market's volatility include the "stock-bond seesaw effect," fluctuations in long-term interest rates, and the release of strategic placement shares, which increased market supply [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite challenges in the secondary market, the long-term outlook for the REITs market remains positive due to ongoing policy support, normalization of the expansion mechanism, and further diversification of asset types [8] - The market is expected to focus on three main paths in 2026: leveraging bond market trends, capitalizing on policy catalysts, and identifying opportunities from expansion and unlocks [8] - New asset types such as cultural tourism and elderly care are anticipated to inject growth momentum into the market, potentially leading to valuation premiums upon listing [8]