【财经分析】英国股市年终盘点：为何能脱颖而出？股汇升势或延续至2026

Group 1: Market Performance - The UK stock market is expected to show strong performance in 2025, with the FTSE 100 index rising from 8,173 points at the beginning of the year to 9,866 points by year-end, representing an increase of over 20% [2] - The FTSE 100 index's performance in 2025 significantly outpaced the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which had a much lower growth rate [2] - Over three-quarters of the stocks in the FTSE 100 index achieved positive growth in 2025, with 15 stocks increasing by over 50% [2] Group 2: Key Drivers - The main factors contributing to the strength of the UK stock market include attractive valuations, strong dividend yields, industry advantages, and favorable macro trends [3] - The FTSE 100 index's price-to-earnings ratio was approximately 19 times by the end of 2025, which is more reasonable compared to the S&P 500's average of nearly 30 times [3] - The dividend yield for the FTSE 100 index exceeded 3% in 2025, making it competitive in developed markets, particularly for overseas investors [3] Group 3: Currency Trends - The GBP/USD exchange rate saw significant appreciation in 2025, with the lowest point at 1.2168 in January and the highest at 1.3743 in July, stabilizing around 1.35 by year-end [4][5] - The average exchange rate for GBP/USD in 2025 was 1.3183, breaking the previous two-year range of 1.20 to 1.30 [5] - Forecasts suggest that the GBP/USD exchange rate could fluctuate between 1.33 and 1.40 in 2026, with predictions of reaching 1.40 by September 2026 [5] Group 4: Fiscal Improvements - The improvement in the UK's fiscal situation in 2025 was a key factor behind the rising stock and currency markets [6] - The Labour government increased the employer's National Insurance tax rate and extended the freeze on the personal income tax threshold, which is expected to generate an additional £8 billion for the UK treasury by the 2029-2030 fiscal year [6] - The yield on 10-year UK government bonds decreased from around 4.9% at the beginning of 2025 to below 4.5% by year-end, indicating improved fiscal health [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - Market institutions anticipate that the UK debt, stock, and currency markets will continue to strengthen in 2026 [7]