2026年一季度动力煤价格或底部徘徊

Group 1 - The coal market in Q4 2025 is expected to experience a tightening supply-demand balance initially, followed by a shift towards a more relaxed state, with domestic thermal coal prices showing a trend of rising first and then experiencing downward pressure [1][4] - In Q4 2025, the price of thermal coal reached its highest point of the year, with the peak price for Q6000 thermal coal in the Yulin region reaching 680-700 RMB/ton in late November, marking a 16.70% increase from the previous quarter [2][4] - The overall supply of coal is expected to be stable, with a gradual narrowing of the year-on-year decline in coal production, which was reported at 4.4 billion tons from January to November 2025, reflecting a 1.4% year-on-year increase [5] Group 2 - Coal inventories at the northern three ports have been accumulating, reaching approximately 29.75 million tons, which is close to historical highs, leading to a relaxed supply-demand situation and downward pressure on port coal prices [7] - Domestic coal imports remained relatively high in Q4 2025, with November imports recorded at 44.05 million tons, influenced by increased demand from power plants and the cost-effectiveness of imported coal compared to domestic sources [9] - Looking ahead to Q1 2026, coal prices are expected to hover at the bottom after a period of decline, with supply stabilizing post-New Year and potential production cuts as the Spring Festival approaches [10][11]