重建霸权，绝非延续“长和平”的答案

Core Viewpoint - The article expresses concern that the "long peace" lasting 80 years since World War II may be coming to an end, highlighting the fragility of global peace and the need for strategic imagination and national determination from the United States to maintain it [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Threatening Long Peace - Five key factors are identified as threats to the long peace, including severe political division within the U.S. regarding global order maintenance and military overreach exemplified by wars in Afghanistan and Iraq [2]. - The changing balance of power among major nations challenges U.S. dominance, while economic globalization has weakened America's relative economic advantage and ability to control other nations [2]. - A historical amnesia regarding the complexities of preventing war is noted, as those who experienced major conflicts are fading, leading to a lack of sensitivity towards the risks of war [2]. Group 2: Mechanisms Supporting Long Peace - Nuclear weapons and their deterrent effect are highlighted as a primary mechanism preventing major power wars, with the concept of "nuclear peace" emerging since their introduction [4]. - The end of the imperial era post-World War II led to an increase in sovereign states, complicating international relations and reducing the dominance of hegemonic powers [5]. - Economic globalization has created interdependent market systems, fostering cooperation among nations and reducing the likelihood of conflict [6]. - Technological advancements have enhanced interaction and cooperation among states, shifting the dynamics of international relations [6]. - Social media has created an immediate information environment that emphasizes ethical considerations, softening the approach to conflict resolution [6]. Group 3: Implications of U.S. Strategic Shifts - The U.S. is showing signs of isolationism and strategic retrenchment, which could impact its ability to provide international public goods and maintain global order [7]. - The tension between a changing world and rigid worldviews poses a significant threat to peace, necessitating a reevaluation of U.S. foreign policy and alliances [7]. - Economic development and equitable distribution are essential for sustaining world peace, as globalization has created wealth disparities that need to be addressed [8].