招商基金朱红裕：中国资产2026年具备全球配置吸引力

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has undergone a cyclical rise, with certain sectors and styles remaining undervalued, making Chinese assets attractive for global allocation in 2026. The focus is on four main investment opportunities: globally competitive manufacturing leaders, industry leaders with improving supply-demand dynamics, sectors with low valuations and potential for significant fundamental changes, and industry leaders with high long-term returns but mismatched valuations [1][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - The current A-share market is experiencing active trading volumes and turnover rates, but there is a notable differentiation among stocks, with some being overvalued while others remain undervalued, particularly in real estate and domestic demand sectors [2][3]. - The investment strategy should emphasize safety margins and certainty, avoiding blind speculation on volatility, especially as the market has shown signs of significant differentiation [2][3]. Group 2: Global Economic Context - The U.S. economy is not performing as well as perceived, with potential fiscal and monetary actions anticipated in response to the upcoming midterm elections, which may include interest rate cuts to stimulate a new economic cycle [2][3]. - Domestic policies in China have room for maneuver, with fiscal policies likely to respond to international conditions, and interest rate cuts may signal fiscal expansion [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The first investment opportunity focuses on manufacturing leaders with global competitiveness, including sectors like power equipment, batteries, electric vehicles, home appliances, chemicals, and machinery [4]. - The second opportunity targets industry leaders in sectors where supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve, such as real estate, aquaculture, chemicals, and light industry [4]. - The third opportunity involves sectors with low valuations and potential for significant changes, such as chemicals, which have previously seen dramatic shifts in performance [4][5]. - The fourth opportunity highlights industries with high long-term returns but currently mismatched valuations, including airport and airline services, insurance, and non-baijiu food sectors, which have high ROE but low stock attention [5]. Group 4: Risks and Considerations - There are concerns regarding persistent inflation and the risks associated with certain styles and sectors, including the undervaluation of the RMB and potential pressures on export industries due to currency appreciation [6]. - The long-term risks associated with AI, including its impact on labor and ethical considerations, as well as the changing landscape of technological competition, are also noteworthy [6].