中国气象局解析拉尼娜状态影响：华东、华南降水偏少

Core Insights - The current La Niña phenomenon in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific is expected to continue until January 2026, with a low probability of forming a new La Niña event [1][2] - La Niña conditions are leading to reduced precipitation in East and South China, particularly affecting regions like Jiangnan and southeastern Jiangsu [2] Summary by Sections La Niña Status - The equatorial central and eastern Pacific is currently in a La Niña state, characterized by a significant and sustained cooling of sea surface temperatures [1] - The NINO3.4 index, which measures sea surface temperature anomalies, indicates that the La Niña state is ongoing, with a three-month average value below -0.5 degrees Celsius [1] Impact on Precipitation - The La Niña state is contributing to the formation of cyclonic abnormal circulation over the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea, which weakens the transport of warm, moist air from the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea to southern China [2] - In December, the average precipitation in China was recorded at 7.5 millimeters, which is 33.8% lower than the historical average for the same period [2] Future Projections - The China Meteorological Administration forecasts that in January 2026, there will be significantly reduced precipitation in central East China and southern Central China, with temperatures close to or above the historical average [2] - There is a potential for the development of meteorological droughts in these regions, prompting authorities to monitor drought conditions closely and manage water resources effectively [2]