供应节奏保持稳定 短期沥青盘面随原油价格变动

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the domestic asphalt futures market is experiencing a fluctuating upward trend, with the main contract priced at 3034.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.34% increase [1] Group 2 - On the supply side, it is noted that the total domestic asphalt production in January 2026 is projected to be 2 million tons, which is a decrease of 158,000 tons month-on-month, representing a 7.3% decline, and a year-on-year decrease of 276,000 tons, equating to a 12.1% drop, providing supportive factors for the market [2] - On the demand side, it is analyzed that there will be a rain and snow weather event in the eastern and central regions over the next ten days, leading to lower temperatures after New Year's Day. Road projects in northern regions are largely halted, reducing demand to seasonal lows, with speculative demand being the primary driver. Due to funding constraints, the increase in demand from southern regions is limited, indicating an overall weak demand outlook [2] - Regarding inventory, it is reported that there was a significant reduction in inventory in East China during the week of December 29, with a slight decrease in overall social inventory in Shandong. The reduction in manufacturer inventory is attributed to intermittent production halts at major refineries in the region and relatively good demand [2] - Looking ahead, it is stated that the shipping volume in East and South China remains acceptable, with low-priced circulating resources decreasing. Refineries in Shandong are maintaining stable contract deliveries, and the supply rhythm is steady. Recent weather conditions in the north have facilitated a small release of construction demand, although most asphalt is being stored. Some inventory shipments in East China are performing well, with a slight decrease in factory inventory and a slight increase in social inventory this week. Short-term price movements are expected to follow changes in crude oil prices [2]