Group 1: Market Overview - In the week of December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, China is expected to receive 15 shipments of New Zealand softwood logs, an increase of 6 shipments from the previous week, representing a week-on-week increase of 67% [1] - The total volume of logs arriving at ports is 510,500 cubic meters, which is an increase of 204,500 cubic meters from the previous week, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 66.8% [1] - The average daily outflow of softwood logs from 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 58,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 7.75% from the previous week [1] Group 2: Inventory and Supply - As of December 26, 2025, the total inventory of softwood logs in China was 2.54 million cubic meters, a week-on-week decrease of 2.31% [1] - Radiata pine inventory stood at 2.16 million cubic meters, down 1.37% week-on-week [1] - North American wood inventory remained stable at 70,000 cubic meters, while spruce/fir inventory decreased by 10,000 cubic meters to 150,000 cubic meters [1] Group 3: Futures Market Insights - According to Nanhua Futures, the weekly volatility in the futures market remains low, fluctuating between 765 and 785 yuan per cubic meter, with the main contract holding a position of 11,000 lots, indicating a capital outflow [2] - Newhu Futures noted that while inventory has decreased and is below last year's levels, the pressure from incoming shipments is expected to rise in the coming weeks, with terminal demand showing no significant improvement [3] - The overall market is characterized by a lack of major contradictions in fundamentals, with domestic and international price discrepancies limiting significant downward movement, leading to expectations of low-level fluctuations in the main contract [3]
低库存的背景之下 原木期货不具备大幅下行空间
Jin Tou Wang·2025-12-30 07:05