Jin Rong Jie·2025-12-30 07:02Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a strong upward trend driven by macroeconomic benefits, policy support, and supply constraints, leading to optimistic market sentiment [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a fluctuating upward trend, with the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400.SH) rising by 1.76% and Zijin Mining increasing by 2.11% [1] - Precious metals are gaining strength due to a weaker US dollar and escalating geopolitical risks, supported by their financial and safe-haven attributes [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The industrial metals sector is performing strongly, driven by expectations of macroeconomic easing and rigid supply [1] - Policy encouragement for mergers and acquisitions is expected to enhance the bargaining power of leading companies, reinforcing the sector's logic [1] - Copper is driven by expectations of future supply shortages, while aluminum benefits from low inventory and favorable policies, indicating potential for price recovery [1] Group 3: Sub-sector Insights - The performance of new energy metals and minor metals shows divergence, with raw material shortages being a key variable [1] - Cobalt is supported by expectations of overseas supply disruptions, lithium prices are fluctuating at high levels, and rare earths are adjusting in the short term due to demand impacts, with long-term value reassessment driven by policy [1] - The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to maintain a strong trend supported by macroeconomic, policy, and supply factors, with a focus on the rigid supply logic of copper and aluminum, as well as the allocation value of precious metals [1]