矿企有望享受“量价齐升”，关注矿业ETF(561330)

Group 1 - The metal market experienced significant volatility on December 29, with silver futures seeing over a 10% increase before turning negative, while copper briefly surpassed 100,000 yuan per ton before narrowing its gains. Platinum and palladium contracts hit their daily limit down in the afternoon [1] - The structural deficit in silver supply and demand has persisted for five years, with silver prices soaring over 150% this year due to industrial demand from photovoltaic silver paste and AI electronics, alongside a high gold-silver ratio. The global silver supply is primarily a byproduct of copper, lead, and zinc mining, and the expected increase in silver supply by 2026 is minimal, failing to cover the projected shortfall of over 100 million ounces [1] - In contrast, copper is transitioning from an anticipated shortage to a real one, with a projected global copper market deficit of 500,000 to 1 million tons by 2026. The decline in existing mine grades and lagging capital expenditures are contributing to supply challenges, while demand from AI and power grids is creating a rigid demand for copper, suggesting that copper prices are likely to rise [1] Group 2 - The recent significant price increases in metals like silver and copper have led to profit-taking, resulting in heightened short-term volatility. Companies with high-quality mining resources are expected to benefit from both volume and price increases, providing a good margin of safety and typically higher stock price elasticity compared to the metals themselves. Investors are advised to keep an eye on mining ETFs (561330) and consider opportunities for low-cost acquisitions [2]