长安期货刘娜：临近假期 橡胶减仓为主

Core Viewpoint - The commodity futures market is experiencing mixed trends, with rubber prices showing minor declines while maintaining a stable oscillation pattern. The supply side pressure has eased due to adverse weather conditions in Thailand, impacting production levels [3][9]. Supply Side - The rubber output in Thailand has been affected by floods in the southern region, leading to a decrease in production compared to previous years. As per QinRex data, Thailand's natural rubber exports for the first 11 months of 2025 totaled 2.419 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7%. However, exports to China during the same period increased by 14%, totaling 945,000 tons [3][9]. - The production in Southeast Asia's main rubber-producing regions is expected to remain stable or slightly increase in the fourth quarter, suggesting that localized production declines will have a limited impact on overall annual output [3][9]. Inventory - According to Steel Union data, the inventory of dry rubber in Qingdao was 524,800 tons for the week ending December 26, up from 515,200 tons the previous week. The social inventory data has not been updated, but it is anticipated that the overall inventory remains in an accumulation phase, indicating greater inventory pressure than in previous periods [10]. Demand Side - The operating rates for downstream steel tires were reported at 61.95% for full steel tires and 72.05% for semi-steel tires for the week ending December 25. The full steel tire operating rate has decreased compared to the previous week, while the semi-steel tire rate has seen a slight increase. Both rates are below those of the same period last year, indicating stable demand without significant changes [10]. Market Outlook - The recent market performance is characterized by a strong tendency, driven by easing supply-side pressures and macroeconomic support from crude oil prices. However, there is significant inventory pressure as the market enters an accumulation phase, compounded by heightened risk aversion as the holiday season approaches. It is recommended to reduce positions in rubber and 20 rubber before the holiday [4][10].