债市日报：12月30日

Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing a "short weak long strong" trend, with mixed performance in government bond futures and a majority of interbank bond yields declining, although short-term yields slightly rebounded in the afternoon [1][2] - The central bank conducted a net injection of 253.2 billion yuan in the open market, with significant increases in funding rates observed [1][4] - Institutions suggest that the bond market is likely to remain in a slightly weak oscillating pattern, with steepening pressure on the yield curve, and recommend gradual allocation at high points [1][5] Group 2 - In the North American market, U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 2-year yield down by 2.45 basis points to 3.450% and the 10-year yield down by 1.95 basis points to 4.108% [3] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year government bonds also decreased, with French bonds down by 3.6 basis points to 3.523% and German bonds down by 3.2 basis points to 2.827% [3] - The market sentiment is fragile, with adjustments in the bond market driven by trading factors and supply-demand concerns, leading to expectations of a weak oscillating trend in the first quarter of the following year [5][6] Group 3 - The central bank's recent operations included a fixed-rate reverse repurchase agreement of 312.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with a total net injection of 253.2 billion yuan after accounting for maturing reverse repos [4] - The Shibor rates for short-term products mostly increased, with the overnight rate down by 0.1 basis points to 1.247%, while the 14-day rate rose by 21.9 basis points to 1.869%, marking a new high since April 2025 [4] - Institutions predict that fiscal policy will be more proactive in 2026, with continued expansion in spending directed towards new infrastructure, technological innovation, and basic public services to stimulate consumption [5]