博时市场点评12月30日：两市继续分化，沪指收盘微跌

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly down, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index recorded gains, with total trading volume increasing to 2.16 trillion yuan [1][5] - The market anticipates two interest rate cuts totaling 50 basis points by the Federal Reserve next year, influenced by political factors such as the U.S. midterm elections and the appointment of a new Fed chair [1][8] - China's export scale and trade surplus have reached historical highs this year, indicating resilience in export structure and direction, with expectations for continued strong performance in exports next year amid improving Sino-U.S. trade relations [1][8] Digital Currency Developments - The People's Bank of China has introduced a digital yuan action plan, with a new framework set to launch on January 1, 2026, transitioning from a cash-based to a deposit currency model [2][9] - This upgrade is expected to create a win-win situation for businesses and individuals, providing interest income and a wider range of financial products, while also incentivizing commercial banks [2][9] Tariff Adjustments - The State Council's tariff adjustment plan for 2026 will implement lower temporary import tariffs on 935 items starting January 1, 2026, aimed at enhancing the linkage between domestic and international markets [2][10] - The plan focuses on high-quality development and open markets, reducing tariffs on key components and advanced materials, and dynamically adjusting tariff structures to support industrial development [10] Agricultural Policy - The Central Rural Work Conference emphasized the importance of agricultural modernization and set key tasks for 2026, including enhancing grain production and improving agricultural policies to stabilize prices and increase farmers' income [4][11] - The conference aims to strengthen agricultural technology and equipment, which could lead to long-term investment opportunities in the agricultural sector and stimulate county-level consumption [4][11] Market Performance - On December 30, the A-share market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3965.12 points (down 0.004%), Shenzhen Component at 13604.07 points (up 0.49%), and ChiNext Index at 3242.90 points (up 0.63%) [5][12] - The oil and petrochemical, automotive, and non-ferrous metals sectors saw the highest gains, while retail, real estate, and public utilities experienced the largest declines [5][13] Capital Tracking - The market's trading volume reached 21,617.04 billion yuan, showing an increase from the previous trading day, with the margin financing balance also rising to 25,517.34 billion yuan [6][14]